When to Sell Water Allocation: A Timing Framework for Irrigators

The seasonal pattern

Zone 1A allocation prices follow a consistent seasonal curve across all years in the VWR dataset (2017 onwards):

| Month | Average VWAP | |-------|-------------| | June | $128/ML (trough) | | July | $185/ML | | October | $201/ML | | January | $217/ML (peak) |

January prices average 70% above June. This pattern holds across wet years, dry years and everything in between. The absolute levels change dramatically — $36/ML annual average in WY2022/23 versus $485/ML in WY2019/20 — but the seasonal shape is remarkably consistent.

Peak selling window: October to January. This is when dairy and horticulture operations are pulling hardest on the system. Evaporation is high, crops are growing, and demand for temporary allocation peaks.

Compliance note: This discusses general seasonal patterns. Past prices do not guarantee future outcomes. Seek independent advice before making trading decisions.

The signals that matter more than calendar dates

Allocation announcements

Every NVRM step-up increases total supply in the system. Sell before a major announcement if you want to capture the pre-announcement price. After the step-up hits, you compete with more supply and prices typically soften 5-15%.

In WY2025/26, Goulburn HRWS stepped from 31% (July) to 80% (March) across 17 fortnightly announcements. Each step-up was a potential price inflection point. The smart sellers watched NVRM outlooks and sold into strength before step-ups, not after.

Storage levels

Eildon's percentage full on 1 July is the single strongest predictor of full-season pricing:

• Eildon >80%: expect $50-120/ML season
• Eildon 60-80%: expect $100-200/ML
• Eildon 40-60%: expect $200-350/ML
• Eildon below 40%: expect $350-500+/ML

If Eildon is drawing down rapidly mid-season and winter rain is not materialising, prices are likely heading up. Hold. If Eildon is recovering on strong inflows and BOM forecasts above-average rainfall, prices are likely heading down. Sell.

Climate signals

BOM publishes ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) outlooks that directly influence the rainfall that fills your dams.

• El Nino + positive IOD = drier conditions, lower inflows, higher prices. Hold if you can tolerate the risk.
• La Nina + negative IOD = wetter conditions, higher inflows, lower prices. Sell before supply overwhelms the market.
• Neutral = harder to read. Watch storage trajectory instead.

As of May 2026, IOD is positive (+0.74 Jan-Mar 2026) and ENSO is neutral-to-developing El Nino. These are bullish signals for water prices in WY2026/27.

IVT status

If you hold water in Zone 1A and plan to sell to Murray buyers, check the Goulburn-to-Murray IVT balance. Once IVT exhausts, your market shrinks to Goulburn-only buyers and prices can soften. Sell cross-zone while the window is open.

After 15 December, only back-trades create new IVT opportunity. If you have not sold cross-zone by then, your options narrow.

The costs of holding

Holding unsold allocation is not free. Factor in:

Spill risk. Victorian carryover is spillable. If Eildon fills during winter, a proportion of your carried water is forfeited. In the current dry environment this risk is low — but in wet years it is the single biggest risk to carryover positions.

Opportunity cost. Money in water is not money in your operating account. If you need cash for inputs, holding water that might be worth more in January does not help you now.

End-of-year forfeiture. If you exceed your carryover cap (100% of water share volume) or fail to complete the LROS declaration by approximately 1 June, unused allocation expires on 30 June. Selling at any price beats getting zero.

The June 30 cliff. In some years, large carryover volumes that did not sell create a rush in May-June. Holders dump water before it expires, crashing prices. If you are going to sell late, sell in April — not May or June.

When to sell early (July-October)

Sell early when:

• Opening allocations are low and prices are firm (scarcity premium already priced in)
• BOM seasonal outlook favours wet conditions for the coming months (prices will likely fall as supply increases)
• You have a clear surplus that you will not need under any scenario
• Cash flow is tight — early-season sales convert water to cash before harvest revenue arrives
• IVT is running and you want Murray buyer access before the quota fills

In WY2025/26, selling in July-September at $180-220/ML was strong if your alternative was selling in May-June at lower levels after the seasonal demand peak had passed.

When to hold

Hold when:

• Seasonal outlook is dry. Below-average rainfall and low inflows mean allocations may stay low and prices could climb further.
• Eildon is below 40% on 1 July and not recovering. This is the setup for a $300+ season.
• You have carryover headroom and low spill risk. Carrying into next season at $258/ML when next season could be $300-450/ML is rational.
• LRWS is at 0% (as it has been all WY2025/26). When LRWS holders cannot supplement supply, the market is structurally tighter.

Holding is a bet that prices will be higher later. The bet can be wrong. Only hold if you can afford to be wrong.

A six-question decision framework

1. Do I need this water for my own use? If yes, do not sell. Buying it back later could cost more.
2. Do I need cash? If yes, sell. Water in your account does not pay bills.
3. What is the seasonal outlook? Dry favours holding. Wet favours selling.
4. Where are allocations heading? If a major step-up is expected, sell before it hits.
5. What is my spill risk? If storages are approaching capacity, sell to protect against losses.
6. What is the IVT position? If you want Murray buyers and IVT is running low, sell now.

If four of six point to selling, sell. If four of six point to holding, hold. When it is split 3-3, consider selling half and holding half — spread your price risk.

Selling in stages

You do not have to sell everything at once. Many irrigators sell 30-40% of surplus early (capturing firm early-season prices), hold 30-40% through peak (capturing potential January highs), and sell the remainder in March-April (cleaning up before carryover deadlines).

This approach averages your price across the season rather than betting everything on a single week's market. It is less exciting than timing the peak perfectly, but it eliminates the risk of getting the timing completely wrong.

What a broker adds

We monitor prices, allocation announcements, IVT balances and buyer demand across all zones daily. We can tell you what water is clearing at right now — not what VWR data showed two weeks ago. We connect you with buyers across multiple zones, ensuring competitive offers rather than accepting the first bid that appears.

You can also instruct us to sell when the market reaches a target price — similar to a limit order. No guarantee the market reaches your target, but it automates the decision.

Read our water pricing guide for current market levels, or review the difference between allocations and entitlements if you are considering permanent versus temporary sales.

Ready to sell? Contact Integra Water Services for a straight assessment of current conditions.